Preferences and values for government policies on infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics for the Japanese population: a conjoint analysis.

AIMS: To investigate the preferences of the Japanese population for government policies expected to address infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics. METHODS: We performed a conjoint analysis based on survey data in December 2022 (registration number: UMIN000049665). The attributes for the conjoint analysis were policies: tests, vaccines, therapeutic drugs, behavior restrictions (e.g. self-restraint or restrictions on the gathering or travel of individuals and the hours of operation or serving of alcoholic beverages in food/beverage establishments), and entry restrictions (from abroad), and monetary attribute: an increase in the consumption tax from the current 10%, to estimate the monetary value of the policies. A logistic regression model was used for the analysis. RESULTS: Data were collected from 2,185 respondents. The accessibility of tests, vaccines, and therapeutic drugs was preferred regardless of the accessibility level. The value for accessibility of drugs to anyone at any medical facility was estimated at 4.80% of a consumption tax rate, equivalent to JPY 10.5 trillion, which was the highest among the policies evaluated in this study. The values for implementing behavior or entry restrictions were negative or lower than those for tests, vaccines, and drugs. LIMITATIONS: Respondents chosen from an online panel were not necessarily representative of the Japanese population. Because the study was conducted in December 2022, a period during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the results may reflect the situation at that time and potentially be subject to rapid change. CONCLUSIONS: Among the policy options evaluated in this study, the most preferred option was easily accessible therapeutic drugs and their monetary value was substantial. Wider accessibility of tests, vaccines, and drugs was preferred over behavior and entry restrictions. We believe that the results provide information for policymaking to prepare for future infectious disease epidemics and for assessing the response to COVID-19 in Japan.

Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on CO2 Emissions in India

We assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on CO2 emissions in India. We study the impact of COVID-19–induced control measures on the major contributors of CO2 emissions by using a difference-in-differences model and eliminating the lockdown effect. We find that all the major contributors except for industrial emissions were significantly reduced due to the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2022, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association. All rights reserved.

Publication metrics: Types, utility, and caveats

Publication metrics enable the assessment of the performance of citations or utilization of published work. Journal-level metrics depend on the database whose citations are analyzed. Publication metrics from the Web of Science include the widely-used journal impact factor (JIF) and other indices such as Journal Citation Impact, Eigenfactor, normalized Eigenfactor, and Article Influence Score. Metrics from Scopus include the CiteScore, Source Normalized Impact Factor, and SCImago Journal Rank. Author-level metrics such as total citations, h-index, i10-index, and g-index inevitably increase with time and can be inflated by self-citations. Article-level metrics such as total citations and online attention scores derived from Scopus (PlumX Metrics) or Altmetric indicate the extent of utilization and discussion in scientific circles of a particular article. Publication metrics are useful to provide a bird's eye view of how well an individual journal or article has been cited or used. They do not necessarily reflect article quality. As an example, some of the articles with the highest Altmetric Attention Scores are actually retracted publications that attained high scores due to the negative debate that they elicited. Journal-level metrics such as the JIF are fluid and prone to historical fluctuations from year to year, most recently observed by increases in the JIF of journals which published a lot of coronavirus disease 19-related content. Research assessment of individual scientists often misuses publication metrics such as the JIF, when they should instead rely on a critical appraisal of research articles by assessors.Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications. All rights reserved.

Public health impact and economic value of booster vaccination with Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, bivalent (Original and Omicron BA.4/BA.5) in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the public health impact and economic value of booster vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent in the United States. METHODS: A combined cohort Markov decision tree model estimated the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of booster vaccination compared to no booster vaccination in individuals aged ≥5 years. Analyses prospectively assessed three scenarios (base case, low, high) defined based upon the emergence (or not) of subvariants, using list prices. Age-stratified parameters were informed by literature. The cost-effectiveness analysis estimated cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted, Life Years (LYs) and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), the net monetary benefit (NMB), and the Return on Investment (ROI). The budget impact analyses used the perspective of a hypothetical 1-million-member plan. Sensitivity analyses explored parameter uncertainty. Conservatively, indirect effects and broad societal benefits were not considered. RESULTS: The base case predicted that, compared to no booster vaccination, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent could result in ∼3.7 million fewer symptomatic cases, 162 thousand fewer hospitalizations, 45 thousand fewer deaths, 373 thousand fewer discounted QALYs lost, and was cost-saving. Using a conservative value of $50,000 for 1 LY, every $1 invested yielded estimated $4.67 benefits. Unit costs, health outcomes and effectiveness had the greatest impact on results. At $50,000 per QALY gained, the booster generated a 34.2 billion NMB and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated a 92% chance of being cost-saving and 98% of being cost-effective. The bivalent was cost-saving or highly cost-effective in high and low scenarios. In a hypothetical 1-million-member health plan population, the vaccine was predicted to be a budget-efficient solution for payers. CONCLUSIONS: Booster vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent for the US population aged ≥5 years could generate notable public health impact and be cost-saving based on the findings of our base case analyses.

Incidence and medical costs of chronic obstructive respiratory disease in Spanish hospitals: a retrospective database analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the comorbidity profile, use of health care resources and medical costs of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) treated at the hospital level in Spain. METHODS: Admission records of patients with COPD and at least two admissions registered between January 2016 and December 2020 were obtained from a Spanish hospital discharge database and analyzed in a retrospective multicenter study. RESULTS: 95,140 patients met the inclusion criteria; 69.1% were males with a median age of 75 years. Mean Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) was 1.9 in the index admission, increasing to 2.1 during the follow-up period. An acute exacerbation of COPD was registered in 93.6% of patients in the index admission; other secondary diagnoses included respiratory failure (56.8%), essential hypertension (36.9%), hypercholesterolemia (26.7%) and diabetes (26.3%). The age-adjusted incidence rate of COPD was 22.6 per 10,000 persons over the study period, decreasing significantly in the year 2020. Mortality rate was 4.1% for COPD patients, increasing to 6.6% in the year 2020. The year 2020, 191 patients registered a COVID-19 infection, with a mortality rate of 23.0%. Length of hospital stay, and intensive care unit (ICU) stay increased in the follow-up period versus the index admission, similar to admission costs. Mean admission cost was €3212 in the index admission, with cost increases being associated with age, length of stay, ICU stay and CCI. CONCLUSIONS: Patients' condition worsened significantly over the follow-up period, in terms of comorbidity and dependence on respirator, with an increased mortality rate and higher admission costs.

Public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during Delta variant dominance in autumn 2021.

AIM: To evaluate the public health impact of the UK COVID-19 booster vaccination program in autumn 2021, during a period of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant predominance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model was used to compare age-stratified health outcomes for adult booster vaccination versus no booster vaccination in the UK over a time horizon of September-December 2021, when boosters were introduced in the UK and the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was predominant. Model input data were sourced from targeted literature reviews and publicly available data. Outcomes were predicted COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) cases, deaths, and productivity losses averted, and predicted healthcare resources saved. Scenario analyses varied booster coverage, virus infectivity and severity, and time horizon parameters. RESULTS: Booster vaccination was estimated to have averted approximately 547,000 COVID-19 cases, 36,000 hospitalizations, 147,000 PASC cases, and 4,200 deaths in the UK between September and December 2021. It saved over 316,000 hospital bed-days and prevented the loss of approximately 16.5 million paid and unpaid patient work days. In a scenario of accelerated uptake, the booster rollout would have averted approximately 3,400 additional deaths and 25,500 additional hospitalizations versus the base case. A scenario analysis assuming four-fold greater virus infectivity and lower severity estimated that booster vaccination would have averted over 105,000 deaths and over 41,000 hospitalizations versus the base case. A scenario analysis assuming pediatric primary series vaccination prior to adult booster vaccination estimated that expanding vaccination to children aged ≥5 years would have averted approximately 51,000 additional hospitalizations and 5,400 additional deaths relative to adult booster vaccination only. LIMITATIONS: The model did not include the wider economic burden of COVID-19, hospital capacity constraints, booster implementation costs, or non-pharmaceutical interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Booster vaccination during Delta variant predominance reduced the health burden of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK, releasing substantial NHS capacity.

Startups and employment following the COVID-19 pandemic: a calculator

Early indicators suggest that startup activity across countries is heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated lockdowns. At the same time, empirical evidence has shown that such disturbances may have long-lasting effects on aggregate employment. This paper presents a calculator which can be used to compute these effects under different scenarios regarding (i) the number of startups, (ii) the growth potential of startups and (iii) the survival rate of young firms. We apply our calculator to the United States and four European countries: France, Germany, Italy and Spain. We find that employment losses can be substantial and last for more than a decade, even when the assumed slump in startup activity is only short-lived. Almost half of the long-run losses is caused by fewer high-growth firms, 'gazelles', starting up during the pandemic. Our results also suggest that the long-run effects of the pandemic may vary across countries substantially with Germany possibly being shielded due to its low business dynamism.

The role of schools in transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus: quasi-experimental evidence from Germany

This paper considers the role of school closures in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. To isolate the impact of the closures from other containment measures and identify a causal effect, we exploit variation in the start and end dates of the summer and fall school holidays across the 16 federal states in Germany using a difference-in-differences design with staggered adoption. We show that neither the summer closures nor the closures in the fall had a significant containing effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 among children or a spill-over effect on older generations. There is also no evidence that the return to school at full capacity after the summer holidays increased infections among children or adults. Instead, we find that the number of children infected increased during the last weeks of the summer holiday and decreased in the first weeks after schools reopened, a pattern we attribute to travel returnees.

[Quick Exit or Deliberate Loosening? On the Future of Contact Restrictions in the COVID-19Crisis]. / Schneller Ausstieg oder bedachte Lockerung?: Zur Zukunft von Kontaktbeschränkungen in der COVID-19-Krise.

How important is the relaxation of contact restrictions for the recovery of the German economy and what conclusions can be drawn for the appropriate level of contact restrictions in the coming months? In considering these issues, an attempt will be made to assess what significance the contact restriction measures introduced by the federal and state governments since mid-March 2020 will actually have for the current slump in economic activity in Germany. In addition, the various plausible scenarios for the spread and containment of infection are presented with different options for easing contact restrictions.

[Fix the Supply Side! Demand Stimulus Will Not Cure What Ails]. / Corona-Krise: (Wirtschafts-)politische Perspektiven: Die Reflexe aus der Finanzkrise sind nicht genug!

The explosion of Covid-19 cases is looming in Germany. The German Society for Epidemiology has warned that the number of cases could soon overshoot the capacity of the healthcare system. This may be true even if Germany follows the 'flatten-the-curve'- approach to reduce infection rates. A suppression of the virus remains the best solution for the crisis. Supply will suffer as long the virus persists. Until then, demand side measures will not cure the epidemic. Coordinated measures for business that ensure compliance and European debt instruments may be part of a strategy to solve the crisis.

Healthcare resource utilization and costs among patients with psoriasis treated with ixekizumab or adalimumab over 2 years of follow-up in real-world settings.

AIMS: To compare long-term healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and costs among patients who initiated ixekizumab (IXE) or adalimumab (ADA) for treatment of psoriasis in the United States. METHODS: Adult patients with psoriasis who had ≥1 claim for IXE or ADA were identified from IBM MarketScan claims databases prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (1 March 2016-31 October 2019). The index date was the date of first claim for the index drug of interest. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was employed to balance treatment cohorts. All-cause and psoriasis-related HCRU and costs were examined for 24 months of follow-up. Costs were reported as per patient per month. Costs of psoriasis-related biologics were adjusted using published Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) discount factors. Index drug costs were adjusted for adherence and ICER discount rates. RESULTS: The analyses included 407 IXE and 2,702 ADA users. IXE users had significantly higher inpatient admission rate (all-cause HCRU: 14.9% vs. 11.0%; p =0.012) and greater mean length of stay per admission (days, 6.6 vs. 4.1; p =0.004) than ADA users. ICER-adjusted costs were significantly higher in IXE than ADA users (all-cause costs: $4,132 vs. $3,610; p <0.001; psoriasis-related costs $3,077 vs. $2,700; p <0.001). After adjusting for ICER and adherence, IXE and ADA drug costs were comparable ($3,636 vs. $3,677; p =0.714). LIMITATIONS: Study relied on administrative claims data, subjected to data coding limitations and data entry errors. Rebates, patient assistance programs, and commission to wholesalers are not always captured in claims. Adjustment made by ICER discount factors may lead to double-discounting if the discounts have been applied in claim payments. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause HCRU was higher in IXE than ADA users. Healthcare costs were also higher in IXE than ADA users after ICER adjustment, over 24 months. Cost differences were largely driven by higher treatment adherence associated with IXE. Index drug costs were comparable after ICER and adherence adjustments.

Public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) in the first year of rollout in the United States.

BACKGROUND: As the body of evidence on COVID-19 and post-vaccination outcomes continues to expand, this analysis sought to evaluate the public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, BNT162b2, during the first year of its rollout in the US. METHODS: A combined Markov decision tree model compared clinical and economic outcomes of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) versus no vaccination in individuals aged ≥12 years. Age-stratified epidemiological, clinical, economic, and humanistic parameters were derived from existing data and published literature. Scenario analysis explored the impact of using lower and upper bounds of parameters on the results. The health benefits were estimated as the number of COVID-19 symptomatic cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted, and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) saved. The economic benefits were estimated as the amount of healthcare and societal cost savings associated with the vaccine-preventable health outcomes. RESULTS: It was estimated that, in 2021, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to averting almost 9 million symptomatic cases, close to 700,000 hospitalizations, and over 110,000 deaths, resulting in an estimated $30.4 billion direct healthcare cost savings, $43.7 billion indirect cost savings related to productivity loss, as well as discounted gains of 1.1 million QALYs. Scenario analyses showed that these results were robust; the use of alternative plausible ranges of parameters did not change the interpretation of the findings. CONCLUSIONS: The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to generate substantial public health impact and vaccine-preventable cost savings in the first year of its rollout in the US. The vaccine was estimated to prevent millions of COVID-19 symptomatic cases and thousands of hospitalizations and deaths, and these averted outcomes translated into cost-savings in the billions of US dollars and thousands of QALYs saved. As only direct impacts of vaccination were considered, these estimates may be conservative.

Piloting a New Compensation Model for Endocrinologists to Improve Diabetes Care

There is a consensus that fee-for-service reimbursement does too little to encourage the provision of high-value care. Our Enterprise, an integrated payer-provider based in Pittsburgh, created an alternative compensation model for endocrinologists. Our plan introduces a gradual shift in the role of endocrinologists from clinical duties to a more collaborative role with their primary care colleagues. Considering that most patients with diabetes are managed under primary care, this shift allows endocrinologists to support primary care physicians (PCPs) in managing patients with diabetes and other endocrine-related illnesses while decreasing the number of traditional in-office referrals to endocrinology. Despite the unexpected changes brought on by COVID, in first 9 months of the compensation model, we observed its impact on care delivery as well as the relationship between participating specialists and PCPs. Practice- and provider-level quality data has shown improvement in diabetes-specific quality metrics. In one year, 16 out of 54 target practices earned NCQA recognition for diabetes management. A total of 88% of participating PCPs reported a satisfaction score > 90% with the new plan. Ultimately, our model shows promise as a replacement for fee-for-service compensation, with a likelihood of lowering costs and improved quality of care.

COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among children less than 12 years of age in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the characteristics, healthcare resource use and costs associated with initial hospitalization and readmissions among pediatric patients with COVID-19 in the US. METHODS: Hospitalized pediatric patients, 0-11 years of age, with a primary or secondary discharge diagnosis code for COVID-19 (ICD-10 code U07.1) were selected from 1 April 2020 to 30 September 2021 in the US Premier Healthcare Database Special Release (PHD SR). Patient characteristics, hospital length of stay (LOS), in-hospital mortality, hospital costs, hospital charges, and COVID-19-associated readmission outcomes were evaluated and stratified by age groups (0-4, 5-11), four COVID-19 disease progression states based on intensive care unit (ICU) and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) usage, and three sequential calendar periods. Sensitivity analyses were performed using the US HealthVerity claims database and restricting the analyses to the primary discharge code. RESULTS: Among 4,573 hospitalized pediatric patients aged 0-11 years, 68.0% were 0-4 years and 32.0% were 5-11 years, with a mean (median) age of 3.2 (1) years; 56.0% were male, and 67.2% were covered by Medicaid. Among the overall study population, 25.7% had immunocompromised condition(s), 23.1% were admitted to the ICU and 7.3% received IMV. The mean (median) hospital LOS was 4.3 (2) days, hospital costs and charges were $14,760 ($6,164) and $58,418 ($21,622), respectively; in-hospital mortality was 0.5%. LOS, costs, charges, and in-hospital mortality increased with ICU admission and/or IMV usage. In total, 2.1% had a COVID-19-associated readmission. Study outcomes appeared relatively more frequent and/or higher among those 5-11 than those 0-4. Results using the HealthVerity data source were generally consistent with main analyses. LIMITATIONS: This retrospective administrative database analysis relied on coding accuracy and inpatient admissions with validated hospital costs. CONCLUSIONS: These findings underscore that children aged 0-11 years can experience severe COVID-19 illness requiring hospitalization and substantial hospital resource use, further supporting recommendations for COVID-19 vaccination.

Parents' attitudes, knowledge and practice towards vaccinating their children against COVID-19: a cross-sectional study.

The question of whether children should be vaccinated against COVID-19 is currently being argued. The risk-benefit analysis of the vaccine in children has been more challenging because of the low prevalence of acute COVID-19 in children and the lack of confidence in the relative effects of the vaccine and the disease. One of the most convincing arguments for vaccinating healthy children is to protect them from long-term consequences. The aim of this study was to assess Jordanian parents' intention to vaccinate their children. This is an Internet-based cross-sectional survey. The researchers prepared a Google Forms survey and shared the link with a number of Jordanian Facebook generic groups. Data were gathered between September and November 2021. In this study, convenience sampling was used. Knowledge about COVID-19 and preventive practices against COVID-19 were calculated for each participant. A total of 819 participants completed the survey (female = 70.9%). Of these, 274 (30.2%) participants intended to vaccinate their children, whereas the rest were either unsure 176 (21.5%) or intended not to vaccinate their children 396 (48.4%). The variables that increased the odds of answering "No" vs "Yes" to "will you vaccinate your children against COVID-19" included not willing to take the vaccines themselves (OR 3.75; CI, 1.46-9.62) and low protective practice group (OR 1.73;CI, 1.12-2.68). Participants had significant levels of refusal/hesitancy. Several barriers to vaccination were identified; attempts to overcome these should be stepped up.

The impact of the coronavirus lockdown on mental health: evidence from the United States

The coronavirus outbreak has caused significant disruptions to people's lives. We exploit variation in lockdown measures across states to document the impact of stay-at-home orders on mental health using real-time survey data in the United States. We find that the lockdown measures lowered mental health by 0.083 standard deviations. This large negative effect is entirely driven by women. As a result of the lockdown measures, the existing gender gap in mental health has increased by 61%. The negative effect on women's mental health cannot be explained by an increase in financial worries or caring responsibilities.

Real-world retrospective analysis of patient characteristics, healthcare resource utilization, costs, and treatment patterns among unvaccinated adults with COVID-19 diagnosed in outpatient settings in the United States.

AIMS: This retrospective analysis of the Optum Clinformatics Data Mart database evaluated US patient characteristics, healthcare resource utilization (HCRU), costs, and treatment patterns among unvaccinated adults with outpatient-diagnosed COVID-19 to quantify US economic burden. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The index event was the earliest outpatient diagnosis of confirmed COVID-19 from May 1 to December 10, 2020. Patients had 12 months' continuous enrollment before and were followed for ≥60 days after index date until insurance dis-enrollment or study end. RESULTS: 236,589 patients had outpatient-diagnosed COVID-19 (7,692 with and 228,897 without subsequent COVID-19-related inpatient admission >48 h post-diagnosis). The median age was 51 years (≥65 years, 30.0%); 72.4% had ≥1 risk factor. Patients with versus without subsequent inpatient admission were more often male, older, Black/Hispanic, and had comorbidities/risk factors. With a median follow-up of 162 days, patients had a median of 1 COVID-19-related outpatient visit (with inpatient admission, 5 outpatient visits). Those with inpatient admission had a median of 1 COVID-19-related inpatient visit (median length of stay [LOS], 6 days), 33.3% were admitted to intensive care (median LOS, 8 days), 8.4%, 7.1%, and 13.3% received invasive mechanical ventilation, noninvasive mechanical ventilation, and supplemental oxygen, respectively; 13.5% experienced readmission. Inpatient mortality was 6.0% (0.3% for nonhospitalized patients). Antithrombotic therapy, antibiotics, corticosteroids, and remdesivir use increased among patients with inpatient admission versus without. Median total COVID-19-related non-zero medical costs were $208 for patients without inpatient admission (with inpatient admission, $39,187). LIMITATIONS: Results reflect the circulating SARS-CoV-2 and treatment landscape during the study period. Requirements for continuous enrollment could have biased the population. Cost measurements may have included allowed (typically higher) and charge amounts. CONCLUSIONS: Given the numbers of the US population who are still not fully vaccinated and the evolving epidemiology of the pandemic, this study provides relevant insights on real-world treatment patterns, HCRU, and the cost burden of outpatient-diagnosed COVID-19.

An Empirical Analysis of Income Elasticity of Out-of-Pocket Healthcare Expenditure in Mauritius.

A free universal healthcare provision exists in Mauritius. Yet the share of out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure out of total household expenditure has been growing over time. This study estimates income elasticity of out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure using Mauritian household data within an Engel curve framework. In the absence of longitudinal data on out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure patterns, the study proposes the application of the pseudo-panel approach using cross-sectional Household Budget Survey waves from 1996/97 to 2017. Income elasticity of out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure is estimated to be 0.938, which is just below unity. This implies that out-of-pocket healthcare demand is not considered to be a luxury, but a necessity in Mauritius. In order to see the differences in income elasticities by income groups, separate regressions are estimated for each income quartile over different years. The results indicate that income elasticities of out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure vary non-monotonically.

The societal economic value of COVID-19 vaccines in the United States.

AIMS: The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of more than 800,000 people in the United States (US) and has been estimated to carry a societal cost of $16 trillion over the next decade. The availability of COVID-19 vaccines has had a profound effect on the trajectory of the pandemic, with wide-ranging benefits. We aimed to estimate the total societal economic value generated in the US from COVID-19 vaccines. METHODS: We developed a population-based economic model informed by existing data and literature to estimate the total societal value generated from COVID-19 vaccines by avoiding COVID-19 infections as well as resuming social and economic activity more quickly. To do this, we separately estimated the value generated from life years saved, healthcare costs avoided, quality of life gained, and US gross domestic product (GDP) gained under a range of plausible assumptions. RESULTS: Findings from our base case analysis suggest that from their launch in December 2020, COVID-19 vaccines were projected to generate $5.0 trillion in societal economic value for the US from avoided COVID-19 infections and resuming unrestricted social and economic activity more quickly. Our scenario analyses suggest that the value could range between $1.8 and $9.9 trillion. Our model indicates that the most substantial sources of value are derived from reduction in prevalence of depression ($1.9 trillion), gains to US GDP ($1.4 trillion), and lives saved from fewer COVID-19 infections ($1.0 trillion). LIMITATIONS: Constructed as a projection from December 2020, our model does not account for the Delta or future variants, nor does it account for improvements in COVID-19 treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of economic benefit from vaccination highlights the need for coordinated policy decisions to support continued widespread vaccine uptake in the US.

PRODUCTIVITY IN UK HEALTHCARE DURING AND AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Measured health output in the UK declined sharply during the Covid-19 pandemic, despite the evident large increase in some National Health Service (NHS) activities such as critical care, and the new test and trace and vaccination programmes. We explain the measurement methods applied to public services that produced the published decline, in the context of the inherent difficulties of defining and measuring health output and productivity;and describe the changes in practice that had to take place in NHS hospitals. We also discuss, on the basis of these changes including increased use of technology, the likely outlook for healthcare productivity. We conclude that within NHS England capacity, constraints have contributed to substantial falls in non-Covid-19 healthcare output and argue that increased capacity in the social infrastructure of the health service is essential to enable higher productivity in an uncertain environment.